POLYMARKET INSIDER RADAR
Trades on unlikely outcomes (≤40% implied prob) · min $25 bet · ranked by insider signal
How to read this: An insider signal means someone bet on an outcome the market thought was unlikely, and several other factors align. ALERT rows have the highest combined score. Look for: low implied prob (they bet on a longshot), large notional (they bet big), wallet seen once (new or one-shot actor), FOCUSED HHI (wallet only trades this market).
Scanning Polymarket trades…
Score = [3×rarity + 2×unlikeliness + size + 2×HHI + 1.5×cluster + 1.5×size_deviation] × decay × resolution_boost × new_wallet_boost · normalized to z-score
ONE-SHOT = wallet appeared only once in the fetch window (~5,000 trades) · FOCUSED = HHI >70%, wallet concentrated on this market · ALERT = z-score ≥ 1 · N WALLETS = N independent wallets bet on this market in the window · NEW = wallet never seen in any prior scan · HEDGER = wallet bet on 3+ outcomes of the same event (portfolio spread, not insider)
ONE-SHOT = wallet appeared only once in the fetch window (~5,000 trades) · FOCUSED = HHI >70%, wallet concentrated on this market · ALERT = z-score ≥ 1 · N WALLETS = N independent wallets bet on this market in the window · NEW = wallet never seen in any prior scan · HEDGER = wallet bet on 3+ outcomes of the same event (portfolio spread, not insider)