POLYMARKET INSIDER RADAR
Trades on unlikely outcomes (≤40% implied prob) · min $100 bet · ranked by insider signal
How to read this: An insider signal means someone bet on an outcome the market thought was unlikely, and several other factors align. ALERT rows have the highest combined score. Look for: low implied prob (they bet on a longshot), large notional (they bet big), wallet seen once (new or one-shot actor), FOCUSED HHI (wallet only trades this market).
Scanning Polymarket trades…
Score factors: rarity · unlikeliness · size · size deviation vs wallet avg · market concentration (HHI) · cluster size · time decay · resolution proximity · new-wallet boost · category boost · normalized to z-score
ONE-SHOT = wallet appeared only once in the fetch window (~5,000 trades) · FOCUSED = HHI >70%, wallet concentrated on this market · ALERT = z-score ≥ 1.5 · N WALLETS = N independent wallets bet on this market in the window · NEW = wallet never seen in any prior scan · HEDGER = wallet bet on 3+ markets in the same event, or bet both YES and NO on the same market (no directional conviction)
ONE-SHOT = wallet appeared only once in the fetch window (~5,000 trades) · FOCUSED = HHI >70%, wallet concentrated on this market · ALERT = z-score ≥ 1.5 · N WALLETS = N independent wallets bet on this market in the window · NEW = wallet never seen in any prior scan · HEDGER = wallet bet on 3+ markets in the same event, or bet both YES and NO on the same market (no directional conviction)